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- #22: Sam Altman Drops Bombshell Predictions on GPT-5 and Can AI disrupt the Trillion dollar Services Industry?
#22: Sam Altman Drops Bombshell Predictions on GPT-5 and Can AI disrupt the Trillion dollar Services Industry?
#22: Latest edition of One More Thing in AI Newsletter.
Renjit Philip
April 30, 2024
I don't think of work as work and play as play. It's all living.”
Edition #22: Sam Altman Drops Bombshell Predictions on GPT-5 and Can AI Disrupt the Trillion-dollar Services Industry?
Date: 30-Apr-2024
Hi reader,
Thank you for subscribing to the One More Thing in AI Newsletter.
Specially curated for Startup founders and Business Leaders like you who want to get smarter on AI in less than 5 minutes.
This edition explores Sam Altman's GPT-5 and AGI predictions, the exploding rate of new AI models, and how AI is disrupting the trillion-dollar services industry.
We spotlight a startup slashing healthcare costs with AI and an AI company landing $150M to transform corporate conversations. Plus, a simple trick to kickstart your AI research projects.
Founders: In case you want to stress test your AI startup ideas or discuss AI automation initiatives in your business:
I hope you enjoy reading this edition, and as usual, keep learning and applying AI.
Best,
Renjit Philip
In this edition:
Sam Altman Talks AGI and GPT-5 with Lex Fridman
To understand the topic, you must listen to the entire episode of the Lex Fridman podcast, and it is worth it. For those of you who do not have two hours or more to spend on it, here is a targeted summary that I created. I listened to it at 1.25x speed while cycling (over three days!).
🎥 Sora: AI for Videos and 3D Worlds
Sora is an impressive new AI that can generate videos and 3D environments.
It can handle objects hiding behind other things (occlusions) and 3D physics. However, issues remain, such as randomly giving objects extra limbs.
This suggests it doesn't fully understand the underlying 3D world model.
Sora learns by studying massive datasets of videos and images from the Internet. Holywood, get ready to be disrupted!
⌛ GPT-5 on the Horizon
GPT-5 is expected to demonstrate significant capability increases over GPT-4.
OpenAI may release it incrementally rather than in a huge leap.
Key challenges are increasing computing power, overcoming technical hurdles, and ensuring safe behavior.
Sam wants to avoid shocking the world with radical AI updates.
💻 The Insatiable Need for Computing Power
As AI models become more capable, the demand for computing resources will skyrocket.
Sam believes compute power will become a precious commodity.
He forecasts an "uprising" in the total global computing power required for AI development.
Takeaway: Energy and power limitations will be the hardest bottleneck. We might need mini-nuclear reactors or fusion power.
🔒 Privacy Concerns with AI Assistants
OpenAI experimented with AI assistants remembering past conversations.
But this raises privacy issues about the AI storing your personal data.
Users must be able to delete anything they don't want the AI to remember. Companies need to be open about how they handle user data with these AIs that have “memory”.
🧩 Q*: The Next Leap for AI Reasoning?
Q* is a secretive project at OpenAI about improving AI reasoning abilities.
Instead of just Q&A via a chat interface, it may involve more step-by-step problem-solving.
Sam hints that Q* could represent a giant leap in AI capabilities like ChatGPT did when it was first launched. However, the specific details of how Q* works remain highly confidential.
🧠 The Path to AGI
Sam avoids speculating on timelines for artificial general intelligence (AGI). Definitions of AGI vary too much to make precise predictions.
He expects very capable but not world-changing AI by the end of this decade.
For now, the existential risk of an unaligned/rogue "AGI" is not Sam's top concern.
He believes that no single entity/person should control transformative AGI-level systems when developed. Phew!
💭 Big Dreams for GPT-5
Sam hopes GPT-5 will demonstrate broad capabilities across many domains.
It is not just optimizing narrow benchmarks but general intelligence increases.
GPT-5 could significantly accelerate the rate of scientific discovery.
Programming via natural language and developing advanced robots are goals. Aspiration is for context windows of trillions of tokens eventually.
Takeaway: I expect to see GPT -5 by this year's Q3. It is going to be groundbreaking!
Too many models, too little time!
If you are finding it increasingly difficult to keep track of the new large language models and their key features, you are not alone. We compiled a table for you below with the important ones (summarized from a TechCrunch article on this topic):
Model Name | Link | Description |
|---|---|---|
LLaMa-3 | Meta’s latest “open” flagship large language model. Widely used by the community. | |
Mistral 8×22 | A “mixture of experts” model, large size, from a French company moving away from previous openness. | |
Stable Diffusion 3 Turbo | An upgraded version of SD3, with a new API from Stability, using "turbo" in the name. | |
Adobe Acrobat AI Assistant | A tool from Adobe for interacting with documents, likely integrates ChatGPT functionality. | |
Reka Core | A multimodal model from a team previously at Big AI, competitive with major models. | |
Idefics2 | An open multimodal model built on top of smaller Mistral and Google models. | |
OLMo-1.7-7B | A larger version of AI2's LLM, one of the most open models available, precursor to a future 70B model. | |
Pile-T5 | An enhanced version of the T5 model, fine-tuned on the Pile code database. | |
Cohere Compass | An embedding model focusing on multiple data types to increase use case coverage. | |
Imagine Flash | Meta’s latest image generation model, uses new methods to accelerate diffusion while maintaining quality. | |
Limitless | A personalized AI that adapts based on user interactions across multiple platforms, including a wearable. |
🔮 Software-as-a-Service is dead. Long live Ai-as-a-Service! 🤖
The way we get services is changing thanks to artificial intelligence (AI). Instead of just using software tools, AI can now directly provide whole services. Summarized from an excellent article by authors from Foundation Capital.
Image from Foundation Capital blog
🆕 From SaaS to Service-as-Software
Old model: Companies give you software platforms, and you use them yourself
New model: AI handles the entire service so you can get the outcomes you want. It is all about jobs to be done (a la Clayton Christensen).
Example: Instead of tax software, AI can automatically do your taxes for you.
💰 A Huge Money-Making Opportunity for VCs
Experts estimate the new AI service model could be a $4.6 trillion market—much bigger than traditional software markets!
🧠 What AI Can Do Now
Go beyond simple automation tasks. (My note: Scores of creators use automation tools like Make / Zapier to string together AI APIs from Chat GPT to complete routine tasks.) I also use these automations to save me a ton of time in my business!
Understand complex data, manage workflows, and make decisions by itself.
It can ultimately take over services that skilled humans used to do.
💼 Takeaway: AI Services in Action
The article talks about a couple of examples:
- Sales: AI can automate the process of researching clients, emailing, client interactions, follow-ups, and so on.
- Cybersecurity: AI detects threats and responds without human help (great for MDR /SOC companies).
The substantial change is AI not just assisting services but delivering them in their entirety! This could transform how entire industries operate. After all, businesses are comprised of products, services, and contracts.VCs investing in this AI trend could make massive profits. This is similar to investing in embedded finance or ecosystems and extends the theme.
AI helps in healthcare insurance.
Imagine a future where getting help with healthcare feels as easy as getting movie recommendations on Netflix. This is what AI is starting to do in the world of healthcare insurance. Mike Desjadon, the CEO of Anomaly Insights, shared on CNBC's 'The Exchange' how AI can change things for the better.
📝 Making Insurance Easier to Understand
✔️ AI takes the confusing rules and explains them.
✔️ Helps avoid surprise bills or lack of coverage.
🤖 Handling Complex Insurance Tasks
There are over 540 million healthcare billing code combinations. AI can quickly and accurately process claims based on each plan's rules, reducing mistakes and speeding up the entire process.
🏥 Improving Doctor-Insurer Communication
AI acts as a helpful go-between. Ensures all forms are filled out correctly before sending and can cut down on back-and-forth delays.
💰 Predicting Future Costs
AI can analyze data to forecast patient needs, Allow insurers and doctors to plan ahead, help manage expenses, and keep people healthy.
⚖️ Assisting with Appeals
If a claim is wrongly denied, AI helps patients appeal and can quickly compile all required documentation and arguments. It makes it easier to get approved for needed treatments.
Takeaways
As it continues developing, AI will play a more prominent role in:
✅ Processing massive amounts of insurance data.
✅ Speeding up billing and approvals.
✅ Making the system more transparent for everyone.
🤖 Meet Parloa - The AI Agents Changing How Companies Talk to You
💰 Big Money for Big Ideas
Parloa has successfully raised $66 million in a Series B round led by Altimeter Capital. This marks a significant milestone in their journey to enhance customer service operations through AI.
This considerable amount will help grow their AI customer service tech.
🆕 AI Agents That Feel Almost Human
Parloa uses advanced AI models in customer service.
The AI agents can handle many tasks independently, but they are designed to sound natural, not robotic.
Parloa's AI conversations match each brand's style.
It makes the AI interactions feel more personal and genuine.
🔍 Finding the Right Agent for You
The AI quickly understands what customers need.
Then, it guides you to the best agent to resolve it; these AI agents are designed to manage day-to-day tasks efficiently, making them seem human-like in their interactions.
Takeaway:
According to Parloa's CEO, Malte Kosub, AI will upgrade how businesses communicate with customers. Instead of frustrating experiences, customers will get fast, personalized service tailored to them. AI agents are transforming customer service.
Learn AI
🤖 Perplexity prompts for a great research kick-off on any topic:
“I'm trying to build an understanding of {insert the topic} to become an expert on the topic. Please research the topic and important sub-topics and organize relevant resources in a Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive list.”
“Please compile an overview of recent advancements in {insert the topic}, including key players, significant milestones, and emerging trends.”
That wraps up another powerful edition of the Newsletter. Want the insider advantage? Subscribe to our email edition to access content before anyone else, and keep it forever in your inbox. Discover the exclusive benefits of being a subscriber!
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